New High Coming for S&P 500 in next Two Months
Since 1946 there have been 18 “corrections” of 10% to 19.9%. A correction is defined as a market retrace of 10% or more but not more than 20% as a 20% retrace is considered a Bear Market.
We have looked at historical data to determine how long it will be before the market recovers the losses of the last 30 days. Over the last sixty-four years the average correction has been 14% and the average recovery time has been four months. FAST market corrections lasting 35 days or less tend to recovery within 70 trading days. The most recent correction has lasted approximated 30 days now. Using past trends we would expect to see the S&P 500 at new highs by August.
Below are details on the 18 correction since 1946:
| Year | Drop | # Days | Bounce | # Days |
| 1946 | 10.30% | 24 | 0.123 | 42 |
| 1950 | 14.00% | 35 | 0.165 | 67 |
| 1953 | 14.80% | 252 | 0.175 | 178 |
| 1955 | 10.60% | 18 | 0.138 | 34 |
| 1959 | 13.90% | 449 | 0.171 | 94 |
| 1967 | 10.10% | 162 | 0.117 | 73 |
| 1971 | 13.90% | 209 | 0.163 | 73 |
| 1974 | 13.50% | 25 | 0.159 | 52 |
| 1975 | 14.10% | 63 | 0.173 | 118 |
| 1976 | 19.40% | 531 | 0.246 | 527 |
| 1979 | 10.20% | 33 | 0.122 | 75 |
| 1980 | 17.10% | 43 | 0.222 | 109 |
| 1983 | 14.40% | 288 | 0.185 | 181 |
| 1997 | 10.80% | 20 | 0.122 | 39 |
| 1998 | 19.30% | 43 | 0.241 | 84 |
| 1999 | 12.10% | 91 | 0.138 | 32 |
| 2002 | 14.70% | 104 | 0.180 | 62 |
| 2010 | 14.10% | 30 |
Source: Standard & Poor’s
